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PHI Home CRAHD Home Staff Publications Projects Now available: No Time for Complacency: Teen Births in California

The California Comparative Teen Birth Rate Study Funding Agency: The California Wellness Foundation Dates: 2002-2005 Staff: Norm Constantine (principal investigator), Carmen Nevarez (co-principal investigator), Andrea Agarwal (research associate) Subcontractor: Brown-Miller Communications This study is to investigate California's substantial reduction in teen births and birth rates over the past decade. The study seeks to generate improved understanding of the wide network of factors that have contributed to California's large declines in teen birth rates, in order to support better informed policies and programs to maintain and enhance this progress over time. The primary methods employed by this study involve comparative analyses, both qualitative and quantitative, of: changes in and correlates of California teen birth rates over time relative teen birth rates and reductions among California subpopulations teen birth rates in California's communities, geopolitical units, and other small-area divisions projections into the future based on various credible assumptions about population demographics and other correlates of teen birth rates, such as family poverty rates. relative teen birth rates and trends over time between California and other states differences in teen birth rates and trends between California, the US, and other western democracies In addition, several cost analyses are underway. A series of individual papers and supporting documents are being produced, ranging from qualitative case studies, to graphical comparisons of quantitative data, to more complex statistical modeling involving the methods of hierarchical linear models. All comparisons and analyses are meant to help explain California's successes, and ultimately to provide knowledge useful to maintaining and enhancing these successes over time. Sophisticated communications strategies are being employed to maximize policy impact of these findings. The first policy paper was released in March, 2003. This involved an overview analysis of California's teen birth rate changes over time, projections for the future, and of California's position relative to other countries. In addition, year 2000 teen birth rates analyzed by California state legislative districts were provided, including estimated costs to taxpayers and to society. Finally, policy implications based on these findings were presented and discussed. This study received extensive media coverage and policy impact throughout California. A second policy paper will examine and explain the differences in teen birth rates and trends between California and other states, with consideration given to both California and national policy implications. A third policy paper is planned to focus on California teen birth rate projections for the next ten years within the largest racial/ethnic groups in California, based on a variety of alternative plausible assumptions and scenarios.